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“一带一路”债务是好是坏?一个不是问题的问题!

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汉娜·赖德(Hannah Ryder)是总部设在北京的国际发展咨询公司Development Reimagined的首席执行官,曾任联合国开发计划署

  "Hype or Hope?"

  Editor's note: 汉娜·赖德(Hannah Ryder)是总部设在北京的国际发展咨询公司Development Reimagined的首席执行官,曾任联合国开发计划署中国地区政策和伙伴关系负责人。

  When I was growing up, my parents warned me about two things: Boys, and Debt. I grew up strongly aware that I was to avoid both, and to approach them with a lot of skepticism.

  在我还小的时候,父母曾告诉我要警惕两个问题:男人和债务。所以在成长过程中,我一直坚定地认为对这两者要避而远之,慎之又慎。

  My husband, on the other hand, was told the opposite: search hard for a great partner, and - if you're investing in your home and future, stretch and raise as much debt as you can possibly manage.

  而我丈夫学到的东西则正好相反:要努力找个好伴侣;还有,如果是为家庭和未来投资,只要能力允许,可以尽可能地举债。

  Now, happily married for 11 years, still working hard, having paid off our student loans, but still paying off our mortgage every month, I guess we found a healthy and happy balance to both partnerships and debt.

  现在,我已经结婚11年了,生活幸福美满。我仍在每天努力打拼。虽然已经还清了学生贷款,但每月还要还房贷。我想不论是在婚姻还是债务方面,我们都找到了一种合理的平衡。

  But what is a healthy and happy balance to partnerships and debt for the government of an entire country like Kenya, where I was born? Should countries be cautious or should they be proactive, and stretch themselves?

  但是,对于我的出生地肯尼亚这样的国家来讲,伙伴关系和债务的合理平衡是什么呢? 各国处理这些问题时,是该小心谨慎还是该积极主动、不遗余力呢?

  Well, here is the challenge. Africa NEEDS a great deal of new infrastructure – from trains to power stations. But African governments are not large or rich enough to pay for this by themselves – they need external help as loans from either the private sector or other international partners to at least 63bn U.S. dollars per year, according to an estimate by the African Development Bank. The continent will also face additional costs due to climate change of 20–30 billion U.S. dollars per year. Asian and Pacific countries also need more debt, their "infrastructure gap" is estimated at around 250bn U.S. dollars per year.

  这就是问题所在。从火车到发电站,非洲每年需要新建大量的基础设施。但是,不论从规模还是财力上来看,非洲各国政府都不足以独立支付这笔巨资,它们需要外部的帮助。根据非洲开发银行的数据,非洲国家每年要从私有领域或其他国际伙伴那里获得至少630亿美元的贷款。由于气候变化,非洲大陆每年还将面临200亿至300亿美元的额外支出。亚太国家也需要更多的贷款。他们每年约有2500亿美元的“基础设施缺口”。

  Just like my family, in order to grow, they HAVE to take on more debt.

  就像我的家庭,为了实现经济增长,这些国家不得不承担更多的债务。

  As an economist, I should know this. It's been shown in many studies that the more that countries spend on infrastructure, the more their economies grow.

  作为一名经济学家,我深以为然。许多研究表明,国家在基础设施上的投入越多,其经济增长也就越快。

“一带一路”债务是好是坏?一个不是问题的问题!

  The Chinese-built Maputo Bridge in Maputo, Mozambique, May 10, 2018. /Xinhua Photo

  As a result, it's not the AMOUNT of debt that matters, it's the TYPE of debt that matters…In particular, is the debt going into projects that will be productive in the future?

  因此,重要的不是债务的数量,,而是债务的类型……尤其是,这些债务是否会用于为未来创造经济价值的项目之中?

  That's why the Kenyan president, in a recent interview with CNN said "What would worry me is if the debt was going into… paying salaries, or electricity bills, and so on. But what we have used our debt for is to close the infrastructure gap".

  这就是为什么肯尼亚总统在接受CNN采访时说:“如果债务真是用在了支付工资或电费等诸如此类的花销上,我就会觉着担心。可事实上,我们是用债务来弥补基础设施缺口的。”

  The good news is there is no shortage of productive infrastructure projects for China or others to invest in. In African countries, where over 600 million people don't have access to energy, renewable energy projects will enable young people to read and do their homework with light, enable factories to run better, without creating air pollution and climate change effects.

  好消息是,有大量生产性基础设施项目需要中国或其他国家来投资。在非洲国家,有超过6亿人无法获取任何能源。可再生能源项目将使青少年能够在灯下阅读和做功课,使工厂能够在不污染空气、不加剧气候变化的前提下,实现更高效的运转。

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